Posts Tagged ‘Paris Agreement’

Guardian Reports: +1.5C Global Warming Goal Illusory, as NOAA Publishes “State of the Climate 2015” Report

August 7, 2016

Writing in The Guardian, Robin McKie reports (August 6th, 2016) that climatologists are warning that the +1.5C global warming target informally adopted by the “breakthrough” Paris Agreement signed at COP21 last year is already very close to being broken.  McKie cites data from “Ed Hawkins of Reading University show[ing] that average global temperatures were already more than 1C above pre-industrial levels for every month except one over the past year and peaked at +1.38C in February and March.”  The Potsdam climatologist Joachim Schellnhuber is then quoted, delineating a radical vision for averting the +1.5C goal, one that is entirely contradictory to the exigencies of the capitalist mode of production:

“It means that by 2025 we will have to have closed down all coal-fired power stations across the planet. And by 2030 you will have to get rid of the combustion engine entirely. That decarbonisation will not guarantee a rise of no more than 1.5C but it will give us a chance. But even that is a tremendous task.”

McKie closes by raising the possibility that the world may well overshoot the 1.5C target but then retroactively calm planetary overheating using negative-emissions technologies.  How this would happen is not made very clear.

In parallel, on 2 August, Oliver Milman writes about the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) newly released “State of the Climate Report 2015,” which details the “’toppling of several symbolic mileposts’ in heat, sea level rise and extreme weather in 2015.”  These include the overall record heat experienced in 2015, both atmospherically and in the oceans–with the eastern Pacific Ocean being subjected to record heat of +2C, and the Arctic experiencing a similar record-shattering increase of +8C–as well as record sea level rise and the lowest-ever recorded Arctic sea-ice minimum.  These alarming planetary symptoms correspond in turn to the record CO2 atmospheric concentration of 400ppm.  Milman notes as well the Met Office scientist Kate Willett’s observation that “there was a 75% annual increase in the amount of land that experienced severe drought last year.”

Please see below for a reproduction of the telling NOAA charts published in the Guardian article.

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2016 Global Temperatures Expected to Approach +1.5°C over Pre-Industrial Levels

April 27, 2016
2016 temp anomaly

Courtesy Gavin Schmidt, NASA Goddard Institute

Gavin Schmidt, head of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies, announced last week his expectation that the Earth’s average global temperature will in 2016 approach +1.15° to +1.45°C beyond the pre-industrial baseline, as based on the record-shattering temperatures that have been recorded throughout the Earth during the first three months of the year.  As Dahr Jamail has pointed out, the upper boundary of this prediction closely approaches the +1.5°C “target” that the world’s states acknowledged as a desirable goal for limiting global warming at the Paris climate talks last December (COP21).  It bears noting that the Paris Agreement, which is entirely voluntary, does not mandate any reduction in carbon emissions until 2020 at the earliest.  Meanwhile, 93% of the Great Barrier Reef has been bleached this year, and western India is suffering an unprecedented drought and heatwave, with an estimated 330 million people affected.